Winter Storm Possible Friday/Saturday

Confidence is increasing in a potentially major winter storm across the region late Friday through Saturday.

A major winter storm is possible across Northeast Georgia beginning mid-day Friday and lasting through the overnight hours into Saturday. A lot of things remain to be resolved, however confidence has been increasing through the day as modeling comes into better agreement with the eventual track of a low pressure system.

Our system is currently coming ashore over Oregon and is poised to make a quick run across the country the next couple of days. You can see it in the image to the right (the big red/orange area on the west coast). How this system behaves as it crosses the country, especially how much it interacts with the large yellow area stretching across the northern part of the country, will determine exactly what we see, however confidence is slowly going up that it brings a major snowstorm to parts of Northeast Georgia.

We won’t be reaching blizzard conditions anytime soon, but a solid snow is definitely in the cards.

The latest GFS shows a “textbook” gulf low system, developing over the GOM and pushing to the E/NE. This will spread a large area of precipitation over the SE and into Northern Georgia as early as mid-afternoon Friday. It shows the classic finger of precip moving into the state around 1PM and pushes fully into the area by midnight/1AM, as seen on the image to the left.

Widespread moderate to heavy snow is possible during the overnight hours, though we will have to watch very closely for a “bubble” of warm air to get trapped near the SC border and south of the mountains. There is no way to tell exactly how long this bubble could hang on, but it could affect the southern portions of Habersham County down through Jackson, Stephens, Franklin, Hart and the like. IF the cold air is able to get settled in quickly enough this could be less of a problem but it has bitten the area before and I have reflected it in my forecast map.

The latest GFS also gives decent snowfall accumulations across the area, especially north of the ridgeline where very cold upper air temperatures will help squeeze out all available moisture as well as lend fantastic snowfall “ratios” (the amount of snow per inch of rain).

I’ve posted the “Kuchera” snowfall totals to the right which takes into account those ratios. This map is not perfect but it’s close to what we could expect if the guidance doesn’t make any more major shifts. My current thoughts are about inline with this latest run, with the best totals coming along the mountains thanks to upslope and high ratios. Keep in mind, confidence in a possible snow event remains moderate at best at this time due to model discrepancies.

We’re keeping a close eye on this weather system and will continue to update the forecast for you as it develops. Stay with Now Habersham for the absolute latest on your local weather. ~ TW